Clinical risk prediction models: the canary in the coalmine for artificial intelligence in healthcare?

From Europe PMC via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: ppub 2021-10-01Publication status: Publishe

Accuracy of a tool to prioritise patients awaiting elective surgery: an implementation report

Study objective The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of a new elective surgery clinical decision support system, the ‘Patient Tacking List’ (PTL) tool (C2-Ai(c)) through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.Methods We constructed ROC curves based on risk predictions produced by the tool and compared these with actual patient outcomes on a retrospective cohort of patients awaiting elective surgery.Results A total of 11 837 patients were included across three National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in England. ROC analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.95 (95% CI 0.92 to 0.98) for mortality and 0.8 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.82) for complications.Discussion The PTL tool was successfully integrated into existing data infrastructures, allowing real-time clinical decision support and a low barrier to implementation. ROC analysis demonstrated a high level of accuracy to predict the risk of mortality and complications after elective surgery. As such, it may be a valuable adjunct in prioritising patients on surgical waiting lists.Health systems, such as the NHS in England, must look at innovative methods to prioritise patients awaiting surgery in order to best use limited resources. Clinical decision support tools, such as the PTL tool, can improve prioritisation and thus positively impact clinical care and patient outcomes.Conclusions The high level of accuracy for predicating mortality and complications after elective surgery using the PTL tool indicates the potential for clinical decision support tools to help tackle rising waiting lists and improve surgical planning

Staggered Dual Kidney Transplantation

We describe a case where a patient received a successful dual kidney transplantation in a staggered fashion. Two kidneys from a deceased donor were accepted for 2 separate primary intended recipients, however, due to unforeseen circumstances, both kidneys were eventually transplanted in a staggered fashion into an alternate single recipient. The intention behind this method was to enhance the patient’s renal function and to prevent the wastage of a kidney. Despite the significantly prolonged cold ischemia times, the recipient has excellent dual graft function after 3 years. The positive outcome underpins the effectiveness of donor kidneys even with prolonged cold ischemia times outside established best practice guidelines. It also reinforces the effectiveness of dual kidney transplantation. Transplant professionals encounter complex situations occasionally where an established evidence-base or aids to decision-making are limited. This case reflects challenges in decision-making, patient counselling and consent, especially when the opportunity for the staggered dual kidney transplantation, with potential increased morbidity, came about as another recipient declined a usable kidney. It also highlights the widely differing risk appetites of different patients. Crucially, it optimised the donation process and procurement of 2 kidneys while preventing wastage. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a staggered dual kidney transplantation in a single recipient